Three ways this conflict will end in Canada and the United States

You had to move until the eyebrows suffered, but there is an expected scenario as Canada and the United States are building a closer relationship from this ugly moment.

This result is far from certainty – thus staring.

But an influential figure in Washington admits her vision. The Caesar Caesar, Donald Trump, predicted the optimistic scenario last week in Ottawa, and spoke behind the closed doors.

“Everything that is going on now will not continue, and it will be good,” Robert Lytezer told the strong and free Canada network, a conservative thinking center, in a joint registration with CBC News.

“The relationship between the United States and Canada will be good or better than it was before and the commercial relationship will be fine.”

There are three possible possible scenarios after the federal elections for this month, after which Canada and the United States are preparing for comprehensive entry Trade and Security negotiations.

We call them the good place, the bad place and the chaotic medium.

Good place? Economic and military security-Canada gets both, while restoring trade-free trade in customs tariffs and the US defense umbrella. Canada can gain new advantages, if the United States maintains its definitions against other countries.

The lighthouse gave to this. He pointed out that Canada has gained a competitive advantage in the last trade war because the tariff, in general, is less than those in most countries.

Most of the products circulated under the Canada-USA (CUSMA) agreement has customs tariff exemptions, and Canada and Mexico did not get the same customs tariff by 10 percent like other countries.

“My analysis is that Canada is better because (CusMA) is more valuable than it was six weeks ago,” said Liser.

He added a warning. There is still a tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum.

The customs tariff was not mentioned on another huge industry, which is the auto sector, which has now been discovered in a set of exemptions and duties – a Swiss cheese of commercial barriers.

Which leads us to the chaotic milieu.

Destitative and gloomy scenarios

It is the separation scenario between them and it appears frankly, like the current antiseptic: a relationship that erodes suspicion, and a tariff here and another there.

“I think (CUSMA) support life at the present time. I think it will be like this for the next year-at least,” Mexican economist Yusus Carillo said on Monday committee organized by the Brookings Foundation, a research expert in Washington.

He expected the commercial agreement to remain. Then again, at this unconfirmed chaotic moment, the definitions turn from day to day, who knows what the commercial reality will be for tomorrow? Not to mention next year.

Just take a look at the recent appearances by the LightHizer successor, the current American commercial actor Jamieson Greer.

In two days of listening sessions in Capitol Hill last week, he also referred to Canada and Mexico with distinctive access to the American market, under CUSMA.

Then again, he also talked about the advantage of the wider Western ball. He said several times that the production of fabric could approach home, as Latin American countries were often a tariff of 10 percent, while quadruple in most Asian countries.

But his testimony was old by the time when the American Capitol left. While Jarir was still on the position of witnesses, Trump canceled this definition team, giving almost every country on Earth the same average of 10 percent.

This is the chaotic medium. The current unstable trading system, which is impaired from one minute to another by an unpredictable American president, with a tariff on certain products but not other areas; It changes day by day.

As Democratic Senator Ron Widen of Oregon said, his voice rises: “What is the plan. Last week the White House was all over the map.”

It can be worse. It can be a complete crisis and constantly manufactured-the bad place. We have already received glimpses of that between December and March.

For about three months, Trump continued to threaten the economic and national survival in Canada, and talks about his neglect heavily, he might begged to join the United States

He recently stopped talking about the crushing of the Canadian economy, or forcing him to accept implicitly, or to refer to the Prime Minister in the name of “ruler”.

We will soon know whether he intends to appeal this, after the federal elections for this month, when it becomes clear whether Trump has changed his complacency or bites his tongue for fear of influencing the vote.

A barrier in front of a quick deal

In any case, it will take time to rebuild confidence, says one of Washington analysts. It is similar to the treatment process – you will need Canada and the United States, first, to spread their grievances.

“For the time being, things are very hot, and we need to give them some time to calm so that it can be reset,” said Jimmy Truny, CEO of the North America’s prosperity and security center.

“Canada and the United States need some time in order to be able to come to the table and talk about the problems we faced in the relationship.”

She noted that the United States has long complaints about Canada’s failure to meet its defensive obligations, from the Arctic to military spending. Meanwhile, Canada was angry with these definitions.

Several other factors can withdraw this.

For example, it may take only more than a year to start a CUSMA review, if it follows its own United States Legal operations To re -negotiate. In theory, the United States can expand the scope of customs tariffs during negotiation.

“CUSMA) are not clear,” said Carillo, who wondered whether Trump would follow the official process or looking for a faster deal.

The delays may get worse thanks to the staff issue: the American commercial team extends. They are sorcery talks with dozens of countries – Jarir was wearing multiple hats, holding different temporary roles in the White House.

When negotiations begin, the priorities are not mysterious.

Canada’s main goal? Building legal handrails to prevent Trump from launching customs duties at the will – a few American legislators Prefer also.

It is a long arrangement. Trump will not be keen to deliver his weapon. After all, it’s just Threatened more customs duties Against Mexico, in water conflict. It also studies the customs tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceutical preparations.

What Americans want more

The United States has several goals. that it Not satisfied with Canada digital services tax. It will search for modifications or end of the supply management system for dairy products, eggs and poultry.

But a top priority? Cleaning foreign parts of American manufacturing – especially steel components and Chinese cars, although they may reach further.

He said that LightHizer was mysterious on the details of his conversation in Ottawa, but he called this 1. Autoss is “the biggest thing,” he said. “I hope we will strive more.”

But he raised another painful spot. On the one hand, the usual trading lane to take a blow to Canada due to defensive spending. “Canada does not pay its share … it does not do it,” he said. “This must be treated.”

These are probably broad themes.

The United States will request changes to cars, dairy, digital taxes, defensive spending, and perhaps only, based on the last sniping of Trump, bank regulations are more flexible.

Canada’s top priority? stability. It may chase additional deals – think about soft wood – but the main goal is to imprison old relationships in a world that only represents a stable.

“I think we have eventually reached the good place,” Trust said. She added a warning, with a touch of graphic images.

It is still alive. It is like, as you know, many said it is under a guillotine today, just waiting for slices. But I am optimistic. “