2026 The renovation elections prove almost in the middle of the impossible to predict the analysts

“Everything changes everything” – Earl Weaver, director of the Baltimore Oreol Hall.

Determining the political scene of the renewal elections next year may be impossible.

At least now.

The middle of the period has become a growing challenge to decipher the encryption in modern sessions. The hand of the Democratic Capitol Hill, which was learned after the historical bloodshed of 63 seats Democrats in the House of Representatives In 2010, the elections were “unbalanced”.

The middle of the period is usually a problem for the President’s party.

New Rnc Joe Groters pledges to “ride the president along the way to victory” in the middle of the period

However, the Democrats lost only a few home seats in 1962 – immediately after the Cuban missile crisis – which brought the United States and the Soviet Union to almost nuclear strikes.

Democrats lost 47 amazing seats in 1966 – the first and medium range of the late President Lindon Johnson. But the euphoria of the electoral music was hardly strong The majority of the house. Democrats took control of 295 seats at home before mid -1966. 248 seats after that. It is still a comfortable margin.

Few political observers expect Democrats to lose control of the House of Representatives in the mid -1994 legendary period – mainly because the party held the House of Representatives for a period of 40 consecutive years. It was almost unreasonable for Democrats to lose the House of Representatives – simply because it had not happened for decades. Democrats and other political observers, Michael Baron, raised the brilliant when the only commentator expected the Republican face in the House of Representatives on their way to the fall of 1994.

Baron was right, as the Republicans gathered 54 seats.

Republicans almost lost control of the House of Representatives in the middle of 1998 – after they accountable former President Clinton. After that, the Republicans surpassed historical norms in 2002 and the house held, supported by feelings in support of preserving the sages over the size after September 11.

Democrats managed to strengthen the House of Representatives in 2018 – following a similar playing book they published in 2006 when they also took control of the House of Representatives. Democrats were running a number of former moderate Democrats or “national security”-often in the battlefield areas. Lack of relativity President Donald Trump Republicans did not help either.

Former Parliament Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif, and former House Speaker New Gings-G-G-G-G-G-Gh, won that Republicans may pick up anywhere from 40 to 60 seats in the middle of the period 2022. Republicans won the Council-but barely won.

Republicans in California are sued the Newsom stops, and the Democrats are to pay the department for dividing the circles

Which leads us to 2026.

The President’s party historically loses about 25 seats in the middle of the first period. Since President Trump is only the second commander who returns to his position after stopping (the late President Grover Cleveland I) was 2026 as “mid -time.” Trump and the Republicans lost 41 seats in 2018 – the first real in the middle of the period. But calculating what can be expected next year almost impossible.

Republicans now have a majority of 219 to 212 in the House of Representatives with four vacancies. Three of these seats are strongly democratic – at the present time. So for the sake of the argument, let’s say that the collapse ranges from 220 to 215. Only Democrats must turn a network of three seats to demand a majority.

It is not that easy.

First, we hardly understand the 2026 stadium.

In baseball, 90 feet between the rules. 60 feet, 6 inches to a jug. The main baseball game in the league united the size of dirt two years ago.

While we turn to the qualifiers, we know that Milwaukee Breweers and Detroit Tigers are excellent. New York Mets and New York Yanxiz should be really good, but they stumbled. Philadelphia Phillies is excellent – but only lost the Zack Wheler jug ​​for a major injury. Who can surprise the extension? The Cincinnati Reds and Kondas City Royals barely outside it. Everyone understands the general variables of the main periodic baseball as October approaches.

This is not the case with 2026 mid -time.

The Republicans in Texas are now designed to redraw provinces in Congress in favor of Beck App for the Republican Party from five seats. President Trump has supported similar efforts to tilt this field in favor of Republicans in Holongolgold, such as Missouri, Ouhayu and Indiana. California Governor Gavin New Roosome threatens to raise current maps in favor of Democrats in Golden State. Democrats in New York may try the same thing in Empire.

Therefore, we do not even know the basics. How far from the painting to the hill in the middle of the period 2026? What is the size of the strike area? Five balls for walking or a standard quarter? Twelve players in the field or nine?

It can hinder the re -division of Republican circles – forcing the party to suddenly defend a number of more competitive seats. Democrats can suddenly have more opportunities as there was nothing in 2024.

But we are not sure.

Perhaps everything is the current situation and democrats only need to turn these three seats.

We also do not know how President Trump’s popularity may affect voters. Historically, it challenges political attractiveness. In addition, the Democratic brand remains completely toxic. The party’s registration has decreased to the Democrats – a great time.

Political analyst says that the Democrats are already concerned about the “big problem” of making voters for the year 2028

However, can the Republicans recruit the benefits of passing the distinctive feature of their legislative business schedule – the beautiful big draft law? Some conservatives doubt that the Republican Party has sold the public enough to this legislation, especially during the August rest period. Democrats scream at the possibility that the legislation will be inversely conducive to the Republican Party in the middle of next year. We also do not know whether President Trump is not voting in 2026 is similar to the performance of Republicans in the middle of the period in 2018.

Republicans can also face a violent reaction of moderate and swinging voters if they are not satisfied with the president’s performance. Certainly, we saw that after the voters were tired of the policies of former presidents George HW Bush in 1990, Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2010.

We have 15 months before the voters went to the polls next year. There can be another crisis of the foreign policy that involves the Middle East. Tensions with Russia on Ukraine volatile. There is a set of possible events – from health policy to the economy that can put the circles table.

Many to look.

Everything in playing.

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“Everything changes everything,” note Sage Ear Weaver.

Or, perhaps we should move to the New York Yangez Pirae legend:

“In the baseball game, you don’t know anything.”